MyDD :: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradictions

New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradictions

by JeremiahTheMessiah, Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:30:37 PM EST

From what I've been reading, we are going to see two new Iowa polls today. Zogby and Strategic Vision.

First Poll: Strategic Vision http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/1 2/05/obama_opens_wider_lead_in_iowa_huck abee_tops_romney.html

Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Iowa that shows Sen. Barack Obama expanding his lead in the first caucus state with 32% support, followed by John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton tied for second at 25%.

That's the Democratic primary.

Now for Strategic Vision on the Republican Primary

Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee leads 27% support, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Rudy Giuliani at 13%, Fred Thompson at 11%.

More after the jump

So let me organize this a little for you.

Strategic Vision Democrats
Candidate - - - - - 12/?? - - - 11/23-25
Barack Obama - - - 32% - - - - - 29%
Hillary Clinton - - - 25% - - - - - 29%
John Edwards - - - 25% - - - - - 23%

According to Strategic Vision, there is marginal movement upwards for Obama and Edwards, and marginal movement downwards for Clinton

Strategic Vision Republicans
Candidate - - - - - 12/?? - - - 11/23-25
Mike Huckabee - - -27% - - - - 24%
Mitt Romney - - - - -24% - - - - 27%
Rudy Giuliani - - - - -13% - - - - 14%
Fred Thompson - - -11% - - - - 10%

So basically Romney and Huckabee changed positions, and there was marginal movement for both Giuliani and Thompson.

Now, we also have a new Zogby poll out. Which I cannot forget

Zogby Democrats
Candidate - - - - 11/29-12/1 - -11/06
Barack Obama - - - 24% - - - - - 25%
Hillary Clinton - - - -27% - - - - - 28%
John Edwards - - - 21% - - - - - 21%

No real shifts here, just marginal movements downward by Clinton and Obama.

Zogby Republicans
Candidate - - - -11/29-12/1 - -11/06
Mike Huckabee - - -25% - - - - 15%
Mitt Romney - - - - -26% - - - - 31%
Rudy Giuliani - - - - -12% - - - - 11%
Fred Thompson - - -8%- - - - - 10%

So marginal movement by Thompson and Giulliani again, but Zogby has been hit with the Huckabee upward trend.

Tags: Iowa Primary 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Just stick to the dmr poll if I were you,

They are the most reliable poll and they show Obama ahead with the moe , so I'll say Obama is ahead.

They have a better track record , all these other polls are fun to look at.

Although someone did claim zogby got it right too in 04 for iowa , but the dmr was right on the money in the way the candidates would finish.

However good one for diarying the two polls.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:35:42 PM EST

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

zogby also says Hillary is ahead by 27% nationally.

here's the deal, you guys focus on winning Iowa and Hillary will focus on winning delegates nationwide.

Its a win-win for everybody! :)

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:43:09 PM EST

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

The problem with that, is the momentum from an Iowa win, could help Obama or Edwards win New Hampshire. Then they get another momentum boost, and may win South Carolina or Nevada. The momentum from that would essentially carry them through the February 5th primaries. The media will be talking about the primaries literally all day every day January 3rd-February 5th.

Some memos have "leaked" where senior campaign staff have said "Lose Iowa, lose the nomination" So your ideal view of losing Iowa unhindered throughout the rest of the primary doesn't sit with what campaign managers and staffers think.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

You sound scared Jeremiah. What's the big deal? Obama's the new frontrunner now. I am sure you're confident in him and his abilities. DMR has him leading within MOE. He the NEW frontrunner. HRC's toast right? Why worry on the poll issue?

by lonnette33 on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Not just the front-runner. I've been listening the expert media pundits. They say that Obama is now the inevitable nominee.

by hwc on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

I've watched MSNBC a bit the last couple days, they seem skeptical of Hillary's attacking strategy. They also focused on the DMR poll a bit on Monday. I haven't heard any "inevitable nominee" but they might have said he was the frontrunner for Iowa a few times... who knows. We could be watching different shows too.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:07:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Hey what else do you expect from obama's news channel , of course they would be skeptical lol

I wonder where all those skepticism was when they were kneeling at Obama's alter and practically begging him to attack Hillary Clinton.

MSNBC has become a joke , very little credibility.

Especially Chris Matthews I know he has professed his love for Obama and disdain for Clinton , but dam at least try and maintain a little integrity.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

check out "Morning Joe", they have been campaigning for Obama for weeks. And the two frat boys, Joe and Willy hate the Clintons as much as Tweety.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

You would think for journalistic integrity they would at least disclose these biases .

But the viewers are just subject to daily anit clinton rhetoric on that channel while they pose like they are some unbiased umpires.

I don't recall them ever disclosing Mika as an Obama supporter or Chris Matthews disclosing that he detest the Clintons and so when he is bashing her daily at least viewers would know that.

At least Tucker has openly said on his shows that he wants Obama to beat her and most of the people on that station do too.

I just don't think its appropriate for these things not to be disclosed.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:26:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey, you could always watch the (none / 0)

Clinton News Network (CNN).

by rapcetera on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:33:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Lori:

He is contradicted by Craig Crawford and he is on MSNBC and CNN.

So it evens out.

by BDM on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

C'mon BDM , they just have Craig on there maybe once when a meteor falls from outer space , this guy has a daily platform for about 2 hrs no matter how lowly it is rated to spew his anti clinton nonsense .

I just think at the top of his show , for journalistic integrity sake he should disclose where he is coming from so voters are not made to think he is unbiased umpire , only hardcore junkies know about his dislike for Clinton and the lack of access thing .

Same with Mika , I don't think they have disclosed it to viewees , yet she gets to sit there and say Clinton is planting questions at the republican debate with a straight face and some viewers will lap it up not knowing where she is coming from.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is now selling himself (none / 0)

as inevitable and so are his supporters. They say he just has to win IA and that will catapult him to a national win. The media says he is inevitable so that must be his fault.
Well I think it takes a lot of nerve for him to sell himself this way. No votes have been made yet and we aren't just going to crown him King.

;)

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Jeremiah, I mean really. MSNBC? Who cares what they think? Chris Matthews, that bastard pig. That's their opinion. I don't hold MSNBC up on anything and you shouldn't either. No one knows how IA will react to HRC "defending" herself, not "attacking". MSNBC is anti-Clinton. Olbermann is the best thing on MSNBC. Anyway, Obama is the new frontrunner!

by lonnette33 on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the Contradict (none / 0)

Yeah, I heard that too on MSNBC. LOL. Whatever!

by lonnette33 on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 02:36:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"leaked" from Clinton? (none / 0)

I dont think so.

Clinton could lose IA, NH AND SC and still be very completive. Can you say that about any other?

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 03:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "leaked" from Clinton? (none / 0)

Yes, there were a number of statements made or at the time were "leaked". The momentum another candidate would get from taking three of the four early states would be extremely damaging to her campaign.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 04:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

from Clinton? (none / 0)

are you insane?

just checking.

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 07:32:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't trust Zogby (none / 0)

He had Hillary losing to all 5 republicans nationally just last week. I will stick with the DMR poll. Obama is on the leading edge of a three way tied race.

by rapcetera on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:33:40 PM EST

Re: Don't trust Zogby (none / 0)

There's a difference between Zogby interactive online polling and their polling of individual states.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting the (none / 0)

Endorsement. Iowa State Daily EDITORIAL: Daily endorsement: Obama for Democrats http://media.www.iowastatedaily.com/medi a/storage/paper818/news/2007/12/04/Opini on/Editorial.Daily.Endorsement.Obama.For .Democrats-3130191.shtml

John McCain: Drill, Drill, Surge!!!!!

by TennesseeGurl on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 01:48:10 PM EST

Re: New Iowa Polling: Contradicting (none / 0)

Are they really? That would be the first time the MSM ever crowned someone the frontrunner who was down by double digit margins nationally, and leading in just one early primary state.

by Christopher Lib on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 02:11:13 PM EST

Re: New Iowa Polling (none / 0)

Here's the deal: Just remember polling is notoriously difficult in Iowa. The hidden message in these polls is that it's anyone's game and that the GOTC operation that each candidate puts forward is the most important thing right now, and the best GOTC operation generally results in a win at the caucuses.

by IowaProgressive on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 03:45:44 PM EST

Contradicting the Contradictions (none / 0)

If Obama wins Iowa, that's fine to me- but I'm not that sure he will. Hillary is ahead everyone else- and even if it becomes a close race like she says it will, at the moment, she is still positioned to win.

by reasonwarrior on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 04:30:20 PM EST

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